House Buying Mortgage Choice Investments Forecast
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Compares a fixed deal taken at the start of each historical window with a floating path that keeps the deal’s margin over Bank Rate locked at inception, and with staying on SVR / revert-to.

Floating rate in month t = Bank Rate(t) + (deal rate at start − Bank Rate at start). This is an outcome history, not a forecast. 2-year variable is modelled as a Bank Rate tracker (the BoE series also includes some SVR-discount deals). Payments assume capital repayment with a 25-year remaining term.

Rates are Bank of England quoted averages. Headline rates only: product fees are not in the published %, and remortgage costs are excluded.

Source: Bank of England Interactive Database.

Mortgage

Product deal length. 2 years compares fixed vs variable; 5 and 10 years compare fixed vs lifetime tracker.
£
Used with the mortgage balance to choose the nearest LTV rate series.
£
Outstanding loan used for monthly payment calculations.

80.0%

Scenarios

Fixed deal
2-year variable
SVR / revert-to

Outcome chart

If history repeated: monthly payment paths after each past start date. Lines are medians; bands are the 25th–75th percentile.

Win-rate summary

Share of past windows where total payments on the floating path (or SVR) cost less than the fixed deal available at the start.

Distribution of saving vs fixed

One value per historical window: total fixed payments minus total floating (or SVR) payments. Positive means the floating path was cheaper.